Trigonometric Grey Prediction Method for Turkey's Electricity Consumption Prediction

Trigonometric Grey Prediction Method for Turkey's Electricity Consumption Prediction

Adem Tuzemen (Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Turkey)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-5442-5.ch007
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Abstract

Industry and technology continue to develop rapidly in today's world. The indisputable most important source of this development, energy is among the indispensables of daily life. Since it is one of the determining factors for the country's economy, the future forecast of electricity demand means calculating the future steps. Based on this, to forecast Turkey's electricity demand, it was benefited from grey model (GM) and trigonometric GM (TGM) techniques. The data set includes annual electricity consumption for the period 1970-2018. The performances of the methods determined were compared based on the forecast evaluation criteria (MSE, MAD, MAPE, and RMSE). Short-term forecasting analysis was carried out by determining the method that gives these values to a minimum. In the future forecast, it has been determined that electricity consumption will increase continuously.
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Introduction

One of the main building blocks of economic development is energy. Electric energy is the most flexible in energy items. For this reason, it is in constant economic activities and daily life. Projected demand for energy, especially rapidly growing demand for energy is an important part of energy policy for a developing country such as Turkey. With the ongoing development level of electricity consumption has increased in recent years, as well as other goods and services, it has also increased in Turkey. Forecasting electrical energy consumption accurately and reliably is of great importance to ensure the continuation of industrialization and long-term stable energy policies as well as increasing demand for electrical energy (Hamzacebi and Es, 2014, pp. 166). Turkey in (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) OECD countries over the past 15 years has become the case in countries where energy demand growth occurs fastest. As a result of the rapidly increasing energy demand, especially oil and natural gas, Turkey’s dependence on energy imports is increasing. However, Turkey can be fulfilled by approximately 26% of the total energy demand from its resources (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkeys-energy-strategy.en.mfa). MAED is a simulation model designed to assess medium and long-term energy demand in a country. Experimental information is needed in addition to the versatile input data to run the model (Akay and Atak, 2007, pp. 1672-1673). Keeping the supply and demand of electricity under control will be realized with a correct prediction.

Prediction is a necessary prerequisite for most operational activities. It is not possible to plan the number of expected activities without predicting the future to estimate the resources to be designed, planned and controlled (Lewis, 2012). Demand forecasting is important not only in energy but also in other areas. People will want to see ahead in planning, cost analysis, import-export situations, and sales. Demand forecasting stands out at this point. Demand forecasting is primarily important for planning. Although it is important in many sectors and subjects, it is also important for electricity. Because electricity is an energy that cannot be stored. When the electricity forecast is less than the actual consumption, power cuts are made. Also, electricity savings will become mandatory in that company. When analyzed on a country basis, a significant change will occur in the spacious levels of the people and the growth of the economy. If the electricity estimate is more than the actual consumption, an extra electricity fee is paid. Thus, the usage of electricity consumption fees paid in vain will be prevented from being used elsewhere. In other words, the more realistic the amount of consumption to be estimated, the better budgeting (Taylor, 2003, pp. 800-802).

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