Using AIS Data for Navigational Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters

Using AIS Data for Navigational Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters

Adi Maimun (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia), Istaz F. Nursyirman (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia), Ang Yit Sian (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia), Rahimuddin Samad (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia) and Sulaiman Oladokun (Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Malaysia)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-8473-7.ch059
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The Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It averages 150 ship passes a day and more than 50,000 ships annually. With a high concentration of vessels in a narrow path, multiple risk situations arise. Analyzing traffic density is made harder by cross traffic and an unknown traffic density at the Strait. In 2009, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), through a collaboration with Kobe University, successfully installed an Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver. Through the AIS receiver, data of ship movements in the Strait of Malacca and Singapore could be recorded. A program was established by UTM to retrieve the data for the purpose of marine traffic collision risk analysis. In this research, a risk assessment method using AIS data is proposed for restricted waters such as for the Strait of Malacca and Singapore. The Risk Assessment Methodology requires the estimation of collision probabilities. The collision probability of the proposed method considers the Traffic Density, directions of traffic flow (with respect to a subject vessel), and probability of navigational failure. An area in the Strait of Singapore between the latitudes of 1°13'N and 1°07'N and Longitudes of 103°4'E and 103°56'E was selected to illustrate the method. By analysing the AIS data of traffic flow, the probabilities of collision for the area were determined. The effect of vessel parameters of length and speed on the risks of collision are also shown.
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It is well know that risk is a concept consisting of the probability of occurrence and consequences of an undesired event. The risk is commonly assessed as the product of the probability of occurrence of an undesired event and the expected consequences.

At present, collision probability of vessels is commonly expressed based on study of Fujii and Shiobara (1971) where the number of collision occurrences over the studied time period, Ncoll is estimated asNcoll = NAPc(1) where NA refer to number of vessel encounter in a time period or number of collision candidates and Pc is the probability of failing to avoid a collision when the vessel on a collision course due to technical failure, which is generally known as the causation probability.

Historically, ship traffic analysis has been bound by lack of data and the difficulty in collection of vessel manoeuvring data through particular area to produce statistics (Aarsaether and Moan, 2009).

With introduction of AIS, it has proven to be a valuable source for ship traffic information. Gucma and Przywarty (2007) and Gucma and Goryczko (2007) have successfully used AIS to provide data of the major traffic patterns and their density to study the possible location of oil spills.

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