Vector Evaluation of Problematic Situations

Vector Evaluation of Problematic Situations

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-2509-7.ch006
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Abstract

In Chapter 6, formalization and formulation of the problem of vector evaluation of problematic situations is considered. The method of solution is proposed. Qualitative assessment of the problematic situation method is proposed. Model example and situation profile are given.
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Introduction

Among the problems of vector evaluating projects and scenarios important is the task of vector evaluating the problematic situations. Management decisions are aimed at resolving the problematic (negative, alarm, dangerous) situations arising in different subject areas. The concept of a problematic situation includes a number of adverse events. Each of these events is characterized by its importance and involves the reaction (a complex of administrative measures aimed at eliminating the corresponding problems). In turn, the importance of the event is characterized by a possible material or other damage, and a caused public outcry. The reaction is characterized by the start time of the response, cost of used measures and efficiency of taken measures.

Management decision-making is based on an assessment of the problematic situation. In accordance with the foregoing analysis, the evaluation system appears as a hierarchical structure shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Hierarchical structure

Here are some examples of events that make up the problematic situation:

  • 1.

    A fire at the tank farm. Let us assume that the importance (significance) of the event is defined by some public resonance and significant material damage. The response to this event is characterized by a valid start time of the operation, the normal cost of measures to extinguish the fire and the standard of the measures efficiency.

  • 2.

    Raider seizure of a large enterprise. Let this event causes major public outcry. Allocated material damage is small. The response time is unacceptable high. The cost of liquidation of the problem is insignificant. The effectiveness of measures is low.

  • 3.

    The accident at the city water. Resonance small, moderate damage, the response time is almost instantaneous, the cost of repairing a small, high efficiency.

  • 4.

    From the city zoo escaped several predators. Public response is huge, response time allowed, the cost of measures to capture the animal is high, a small efficiency.

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Formalization

To formalize the problem of evaluation problematic situations is necessary for all quality concepts to assign a quantitative value. From Figure 1 it is evident that the concept of situation is decomposed, resulting in the hierarchical properties structure. Properties of the first hierarchical level can be divided into the following sets of properties, etc. Depth of dividing is determined by the desire to reach those properties, which can be conveniently compared with each other.

Properties, for which there are objective numerical characteristics, are called criteria. More precisely: the criteria are called quantitative properties of the object, the numerical values of ​​which are a measure of the quality of the object in relation to this property. Getting a set of criteria – the final result of the hierarchical decomposition. Figure 2 shows the m-tier hierarchy of the criteria. The number of levels m depends on the required depth of decomposition. In our case, there is a four-level hierarchy. The properties of the lower, first level (i.e. criteria) can be expressed in numbers and are the starting point for the solution of the problem situation assessment.

Figure 2.

Hierarchy of the criteria

A comparison of individual properties approach, for all its attractiveness, creates a serious problem of the reverse transition to the required assessment of the situation as a whole. This issue involves solution of the criteria composition problem through the levels of the hierarchy that is quite difficult, especially when a large depth of properties decomposition takes place. In the simplest and most common case (two-level hierarchy) the composition problem is solved by obtaining a traditional single scalar convolution of criteria. But if there is a three-level hierarchy, that requires a different approach.

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