What If the USSR Comes Back to Life Once Again?: Measuring CINC Index of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

What If the USSR Comes Back to Life Once Again?: Measuring CINC Index of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

Khemis Mohammed (Université Kasdi Merbah Ouargla, Algeria)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-3264-4.ch011

Abstract

The Soviet Union played the role of a great power in the international system for many decades after World War II, and the main sources of Soviet power came from its hard components of power such as large territory, large populations, and solid industrial base. However, the Soviet Union dissolved at the end of the Cold War in 1991 and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as an alternative body of former great power was established. However, the CIS still attempts to overtake the symbolic image of a post-Soviet region to rebuild a powerful multilateral organization in realms of security, trade, and finance. Thus, the question is, What if the Commonwealth of Independent States turns out to a unitary coherent actor able to compete in the international system as a great power? In order to answer this question, this chapter will try to measure the composite index of national capability (CINC) of the CIS combined and compare it with the CINC scores of the United States and China to figure out the main CIS potentials in terms of hard power components such as total population, urban population, steel production, energy consumption, military personnel, and military expenditure.
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Theoretical Overview

There have been different approaches to national power measurement that generate multiple rankings that diverge greatly. What actually makes some countries under or overrated in different models of national power measurement that diverge according to their selected variables. The Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) is used widely as a model of hard national power measurement formulated by Joel David Singer for the correlates of war in 1963. David Singer had proposed CINC as basic analysis of how capability distribution and uncertainty may cause unpredictable war among major powers.

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