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What is Backtesting

Encyclopedia of Business Analytics and Optimization
In order to validate (assess for presence of evidence of model misspecification) risk measures, for example Value-at-Risk (VaR), a systematic comparison is performed between the actual portfolio profit and loss (P&L) observations and the predicted VaR at the respective confidence level. If the actual P&L observations considerably exceed the VaR forecast, this means that the risk measure model underestimates the (market) risk. The opposite situation signals for risk overestimation.
Published in Chapter:
Estimating Risk with Copulas
Iva Mihaylova (University of St. Gallen, Switzerland)
Copyright: © 2014 |Pages: 14
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-5202-6.ch079
Full Text Chapter Download: US $37.50 Add to Cart
More Results
Portfolio Optimization for the Indian Stock Market
It is the general method for seeing how well a strategy or model would have done ex-post. Backtesting assesses the viability of a trading strategy by discovering how it would play out using historical data. If backtesting works, traders and analysts may have the confidence to employ it gone forward.
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