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What is Bayes Theorem

Chapter 12
Analyzing Data Through Probabilistic Modeling in Statistics
Represents a rigorous approach to update a prior distribution, which expresses the experts’ preliminary opinion, through the experimental data gathered on the field.
Published in Chapter:
Project Control: A Bayesian Model
Franco Caron (Politecnico Milano, Italy)
Copyright: © 2021 |Pages: 13
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-4706-9.ch012
Abstract
The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage of project execution is the prerequisite in order to provide an effective project control. The non-repetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders increase project complexity and raise the need to exploit all the available knowledge sources in order to improve the forecasting process. Therefore, drawing on a set of case studies, this chapter proposes a Bayesian approach to support the elaboration of the estimate at completion in those industrial fields where projects are denoted by a high level of uncertainty and complexity. The Bayesian approach allows the authors to integrate experts' opinions, data records related to past projects, and data related to the current performance of the ongoing project. Data from past projects are selected through a similarity analysis. The proposed approach shows a higher accuracy in comparison with the traditional formulas typical of the earned value management (EVM) methodology.
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Chapter 103
Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach
Represents a rigorous approach to update a prior distribution, which expresses the experts’ preliminary opinion, through the experimental data gathered on the field.
Published in Chapter: Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach; From: Advanced Methodologies and Technologies in Business Operations and Management
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Chapter 493
Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach
Represents a rigorous approach to update a prior distribution, which expresses the experts’ preliminary opinion, through the experimental data gathered on the field.
Published in Chapter: Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach; From: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition
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Chapter 149
Algorithms for Approximate Bayesian Computation
A simple theorem that converts one probability distribution (the distribution of the data given the model parameters) to another (the distribution of the model parameters given the data): .
Published in Chapter: Algorithms for Approximate Bayesian Computation; From: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition
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Chapter 517
Recruitment Portfolio Games
The statistical result of the rational manipulation of conditional probabilities for beliefs adjusted for the evidence as it accumulates.
Published in Chapter: Recruitment Portfolio Games; From: Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Third Edition
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Chapter 108
Improving the Forecasting Process in Project Control
Represents a rigorous approach to update a prior distribution, which expresses the experts’ preliminary opinion, through the experimental data gathered on the field.
Published in Chapter: Improving the Forecasting Process in Project Control; From: Encyclopedia of Business Analytics and Optimization
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