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What is Climate Projection

Chapter 12
Handbook of Research on Geospatial Science and Technologies
A climate projection refers to a description of the response of the climate system to a scenario of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, as simulated by a climate model. According to the IPCC climate projections alone can rarely provide sufficient information to estimate future impacts of climate change. Model outputs commonly have to be manipulated and combined with observed climate data to be usable as inputs to impact models. A range of uncertainties affects projections of climate change. Uncertainty in projected climate change arises from three main sources; uncertainty in forcing scenarios, uncertainty in modelled responses to given forcing scenarios, and uncertainty due to missing or misrepresented physical processes in models.
Published in Chapter:
Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources of the Limpopo Basin: Simulations of a Coupled GCM and Hybrid Atmospheric-Terrestrial Water Balance (HATWAB) Model
Berhanu F. Alemaw (University of Botswana, Botswana) and Thebeyame Ronald Chaoka (University of Botswana, Botswana)
Copyright: © 2018 |Pages: 24
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-3440-2.ch012
Abstract
This chapter aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both hydrologic regimes and water resources of the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa. Water resources availability in the basin, in terms of, seasonal and annual runoff (R), soil moisture (S) and actual evapotranspiration (Ea) is simulated and evaluated using the hydrological model, HATWAB. These water balances were computed from precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and other variables that govern the soil-water-vegetation-atmospheric processes at 9.2km latitude/ longitude gird cells covering the basin. The 1961-90 simulated mean annual runoff reveals mixed patterns of high and low runoff across the region. Although relatively small changes in runoff simulations are prevalent among the three climate change scenarios, generally the OSU simulated relatively high runoff compared to the UKTR and HADCM2 GCMs.
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