It is a standardized legal agreement to buy or sell something at a predetermined price at a certain time in the future. The buyer must purchase, or the seller must sell the underlying asset at the set price.
Published in Chapter:
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Agricultural Futures in the USA: Evidence From a Dynamic Fourier Quantile Causality Test
Ugur Korkut Pata (Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Turkey), Onder Ozgur (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey),
Veli Yilanci (Faculty of Political Sciences, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Turkey), and Muhammed Sehid Gorus (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey)
Copyright: © 2022
|Pages: 26
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-9648-7.ch015
Abstract
This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various agricultural commodity futures (cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, soybean meal, soybeans, sugar, and wheat) in the United States for the period from January 24, 2020, to July 6, 2021, considering oil prices as a control variable. Specifically, the study employs a novel Fourier quantile causality test and its time-varying form. The results show that the causal relationships between COVID-19 cases and agricultural commodity futures are highly time-varying. The empirical findings also demonstrate that COVID-19 has the strongest causal effect on coffee futures, followed by sugar, soybeans, and corn. In contrast, the impact of COVID-19 on cocoa and cotton futures is relatively limited. The causal effect of COVID-19 on agricultural futures is more pronounced at lower quantiles and in the spring and summer months. In general, COVID-19 has significant predictive power for the six agricultural commodity futures over 100 days in the analysis period, with the exception of cocoa and cotton.