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What is Theoretical Models Generations

Chapter 16
Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems
The currency crises and sovereign debt crises that have occurred with increasing frequency since the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s have inspired a huge amount of research. There have been several 'generations' of models of currency crises. First generation focuses on investor’s behaviour, second generation on institutional roles, third generation on contagion and fourth generation on system asymmetries and weaknesses.
Published in Chapter:
Developing EWS Models for Contemporary Crises Using Extreme Value Binary Models: The Cases of Eurozone and Argentinian Peso (2014)
Dimitrios K. Dapontas (University of Peloponnese, Greece)
Copyright: © 2016 |Pages: 21
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-9484-2.ch016
Abstract
This chapter is presenting the most contemporary crises following the 2008 credit crunch and small scale following crises. Our sample consists of five countries (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Argentine respectively) hit by crisis during 2010's. The Early Warning System (EWS) proposed is the Extreme Value Model (EVA) used previously for natural disasters and irregular phenomena. Its major advantage compared to other binary models is its focus to the turbulence periods and their characteristics contrast to possible trend models which exclude them. The results show that EVA fits better forecast and it gave positive and calm signals than similar logit and probit models for all five cases examined.
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