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Modeling Risk and Opportunity Reality

Modeling Risk and Opportunity Reality

Tom W. Townley
Copyright: © 2017 |Pages: 24
ISBN13: 9781522517900|ISBN10: 1522517901|EISBN13: 9781522517917
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-1790-0.ch020
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MLA

Townley, Tom W. "Modeling Risk and Opportunity Reality." Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management, edited by Yuri Raydugin, IGI Global, 2017, pp. 435-458. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-1790-0.ch020

APA

Townley, T. W. (2017). Modeling Risk and Opportunity Reality. In Y. Raydugin (Ed.), Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management (pp. 435-458). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-1790-0.ch020

Chicago

Townley, Tom W. "Modeling Risk and Opportunity Reality." In Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management, edited by Yuri Raydugin, 435-458. Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2017. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-1790-0.ch020

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Abstract

The author of this chapter worked for 42 years in the construction industry. Employed by a company with great leadership, vision and values. The author was able to evolve from the pencil and paper applications to the latest in data acquisition, analysis and modeling. Simulation modeling and business science were successfully applied to many business functions with significant results in predicting risk and uncertainty ranges before bids, projects and investment decisions were complete. Included in this chapter are samples of Strategic Bidding, Cost (Range) Estimating, Scheduling, Project Management/Control, and Corporate Resource Management. Business processes can be measured for Stability, Capability and Predictability. Consistently balancing decisions within the upper and lower control limits, using valid reasoning for taking advantage of risk or opportunity will usually guarantee long term success. Reality can be a friend if it is measured and applied with the right expectations. Modeling creates the environment for tapping into substance and understanding.

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