Effects of Commodity and Asset Bubbles on Inflation in Indonesia

Effects of Commodity and Asset Bubbles on Inflation in Indonesia

Iman Sugema, Toni Bakhtiar
ISBN13: 9781466672888|ISBN10: 1466672889|EISBN13: 9781466672895
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-7288-8.ch019
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MLA

Sugema, Iman, and Toni Bakhtiar. "Effects of Commodity and Asset Bubbles on Inflation in Indonesia." Handbook of Research on Strategic Developments and Regulatory Practice in Global Finance, edited by Özlem Olgu, et al., IGI Global, 2015, pp. 308-318. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7288-8.ch019

APA

Sugema, I. & Bakhtiar, T. (2015). Effects of Commodity and Asset Bubbles on Inflation in Indonesia. In Ö. Olgu, H. Dinçer, & Ü. Hacıoğlu (Eds.), Handbook of Research on Strategic Developments and Regulatory Practice in Global Finance (pp. 308-318). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7288-8.ch019

Chicago

Sugema, Iman, and Toni Bakhtiar. "Effects of Commodity and Asset Bubbles on Inflation in Indonesia." In Handbook of Research on Strategic Developments and Regulatory Practice in Global Finance, edited by Özlem Olgu, Hasan Dinçer, and Ümit Hacıoğlu, 308-318. Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2015. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7288-8.ch019

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Abstract

This chapter aims to investigate the possible impacts of commodity and asset bubbles on inflation in Indonesian economics. The analysis is facilitated by a macroeconomic model described by a couple of structural equations which consist of several exogenous variables as shock generators. The model is basically a linear rational expectation model (LREM) and solved by implementing undetermined coefficient methods. A series of simulation based on the state space representation of the model with respect to an impulse response function is performed to highlight some of key features of current inflation trends. It is shown that consumer price inflation can be propagated by both hikes in international commodity prices and assets prices. Consequently, inflation can be more difficult to manage during an episode of commodity and asset bubbles. Indeed, such an episode is very common to emerging economies during the last few years and thereby it is not surprising that monetary authorities tend to miss the inflation target very often. It suggests that the authorities should take into account the future movement of commodity and assets prices when setting the target.

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