Innovation Risk Path Assessing for a Newly Emerging Science and Technology: Illustrated for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

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Abstract

For “Newly Emerging Science & Technologies” (“NESTs”), uncertainty is the major challenge. Technological innovation for NESTs faces many kinds of risks that dramatically affect their development paths. This chapter combines methods of risk utility theory and technology path research and explores a new innovation risk path modeling method for NEST development. Here, the authors apply selected tools from risk utility theory and technology path research to the NEST of special concern—Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs). The case for DSSC commercialization is promising, but challengeable. The prospects for future development of DSSCs are good, with identifiable markets. Multi-party collaboration appears necessary in order to overcome challenges to development. If key technology component selection, technical stability, maturation rate, and other core issues can be improved, commercial innovation has tremendous potential. However, significant competing technologies, as well as uncertain environmental influences, complicate matters. This combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches should yield robust assessment and should allow for better communication of those results. It is useful for technology managers and policy-makers to grasp the development process and prospects for a specific NEST to facilitate innovation management.