This research presents the application of Empirical Bayesian Kriging, a geostatistical interpolation method. The case study is about suicide prevention. The dataset is composed of more than one million records, obtained from the report database of the Emergency Service 911 of the Mexican State of Aguascalientes. The purpose is to get prediction surfaces, probability, and standard error prediction for completed suicide cases. Here, the variations in the environment of suicide cases are relative to and dependent on economic, social, and cultural phenomena.
TopIntroduction
The Mexican State of Aguascalientes is currently experiencing a social problem that undermines the tranquility of its citizens: the phenomenon of suicide, which has been on the rise in the last decade, with repercussions in multiple sectors, such as public health and economy. To effectively prevent the issue of suicide, we should use a multi-sectoral approach that addresses the phenomenon in a comprehensive manner (World Health Organization, 2014).
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), responsible for regulating and coordinating the National System of Statistical and Geographical Information, shows alarming data where the Mexican State of Aguascalientes ranks as the second-highest rate of suicides (10.1%), only below the State of Chihuahua with a rate of 10.7% per 100,000 inhabitants (INEGI, 2019).
From January 2016 to October 2019, according to statistics from the 911 Emergency Service, there has been an upward trend in this indicator, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. The trend in the phenomenon of suicide for the period 2016-2019
The same statistic shows that, in 2019, the suicidal tendency was more pronounced in men in the age range of 19–40 years; from a total of 120, seventy committed suicides were reported until October. In the case of women, 24 completed suicides were reported by the same date, being more pronounced in 19–40 years-old.
The member states of the WHO (World Health Organization) presented an action plan on mental health for the period 2013-2020, which set a global goal of reducing the suicide rate by 10% by the end of it (World Health Organization, 2014).
The database used for the application of the method contains records from the period 2010-2018, with more than one million reports stored, where a total of 537 cases of suicides are in Aguascalientes. Table 1 presents the features of the database of reports.
Table 1. Characteristics of the database of reports of the Emergency Service 911 of the Aguascalientes State.
| Features | Case_1 | Case_2 | Case_3 |
| Id_Mode | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Id_Rol_Person | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Full Name | OMITTED | OMITTED | OMITTED |
| Date | 06/12/2014 | 06/11/2014 | 06/10/2014 |
| Hour | 05:58:07 p. m. | 10:31:23 p. m. | 01:37:17 p. m. |
| Age | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inc_No_Int | | | |
| Id_Community | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Telephone | OMITTED | OMITTED | OMITTED |
| Id_street | 1967 | 636 | 2215 |
| Domestic_Violence | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alcoholic | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Age1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drug Consumption | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Id_Colony | 54 | 328 | 61 |
| Inc_No_Ext | | 105 | |
| Domestic_Violence2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Municipality_Code | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Psychological Support | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dating Violence | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Diagnostic | | | |
| Suicide Threat | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Id_Sex | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Suicide | 0 | 0 | 0 |