Single Incident Geographical Profiling

Abstract

This chapter describes the results obtained by using simulation software to determine the ability to rank the suspects of a single incident based on the geographic information derived from arrest records. The current software uses three different geographic filters. These geographic filters were based on the standard distance decay curve (DDC), an incident based distance decay curve (IBDDC) and the incident-based offender residence probability surface (IBORPS). These filters were rated on their ability to order suspect lists. Boundary effects due to the crude core-periphery population gradient characteristic of cities and sub-areal heterogeneities were found to be associated with the standard DDC analysis. The results indicated a definite utility value in these filters, which tends to support crime theories based on the premise that criminal activity patterns are systematically influenced by an offender’s geographic setting. These results also have strategic significance in the formulation of policies that prescribe the assembly and processing of suspect lists and serve as the basis for geographic profiling based on a single incident.