Generating and Verifying Risk Prediction Models using Data Mining

Generating and Verifying Risk Prediction Models using Data Mining

Darryl N. Davis (University of Hull, UK) and Thuy T.T. Nguyen (University of Hull, UK)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-60566-218-3.ch009
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Risk prediction models are of great interest to clinicians. They offer an explicit and repeatable means to aide the selection, from a general medical population, those patients that require a referral to medical consultants and specialists. In many medical domains, including cardiovascular medicine, no gold standard exists for selecting referral patients. Where evidential selection is required using patient data, heuristics backed up by poorly adapted more general risk prediction models are pressed into action, with less than perfect results. In this study, existing clinical risk prediction models are examined and matched to the patient data to which they may be applied using classification and data mining techniques, such as neural nets. Novel risk prediction models are derived using unsupervised cluster analysis algorithms. All existing and derived models are verified as to their usefulness in medical decision support on the basis of their effectiveness on patient data from two UK sites.
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Risk Prediction Models

In this section, two forms of risk prediction model, as used in routine clinical practice, are introduced. The first, POSSUM, typifies the application of generic models to specific medical disciplines. The second set reflect the clinical heuristics regularly used in medicine. The data used throughout this case study is from two UK clinical sites. The attributes are a mixture of real number, integer, Boolean and categorical values. The data records typically contain many default and missing values. For both sites there is typically too high a data value space (i.e. the space of all possible values for all attributes in the raw data) for the data volume (i.e. the number of records) to perform naïve data mining, and some form of data preprocessing is required before using any classifier if meaningful results are to be obtained. Furthermore, as can be seen in the tabulated results, the data once labeled is class-imbalanced; with low risk patients heavily out numbering high risk patients.The main characteristics of the cardiovascular data from Clinical Site One (98 attributes and 499 patient records) are:

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Table of Contents
Riccardo Bellazzi
Petr Berka, Jan Rauch, Djamel Abdelkader Zighed
Petr Berka, Jan Rauch, Djamel Abdelkader Zighed
Chapter 1
Jana Zvárová, Arnošt Veselý
This chapter introduces the basic concepts of medical informatics: data, information, and knowledge. Data are classified into various types and... Sample PDF
Data, Information and Knowledge
Chapter 2
Michel Simonet, Radja Messai, Gayo Diallo
Health data and knowledge had been structured through medical classifications and taxonomies long before ontologies had acquired their pivot status... Sample PDF
Ontologies in the Health Field
Chapter 3
Alberto Freitas, Pavel Brazdil, Altamiro Costa-Pereira
This chapter introduces cost-sensitive learning and its importance in medicine. Health managers and clinicians often need models that try to... Sample PDF
Cost-Sensitive Learning in Medicine
Chapter 4
Arnošt Veselý
This chapter deals with applications of artificial neural networks in classification and regression problems. Based on theoretical analysis it... Sample PDF
Classification and Prediction with Neural Networks
Chapter 5
Patrik Eklund, Lena Kallin Westin
Classification networks, consisting of preprocessing layers combined with well-known classification networks, are well suited for medical data... Sample PDF
Preprocessing Perceptrons and Multivariate Decision Limits
Chapter 6
Xiu Ying Wang, Dagan Feng
The rapid advance and innovation in medical imaging techniques offer significant improvement in healthcare services, as well as provide new... Sample PDF
Image Registration for Biomedical Information Integration
Chapter 7
ECG Processing  (pages 137-160)
Lenka Lhotská, Václav Chudácek, Michal Huptych
This chapter describes methods for preprocessing, analysis, feature extraction, visualization, and classification of electrocardiogram (ECG)... Sample PDF
ECG Processing
Chapter 8
EEG Data Mining Using PCA  (pages 161-180)
Lenka Lhotská, Vladimír Krajca, Jitka Mohylová, Svojmil Petránek, Václav Gerla
This chapter deals with the application of principal components analysis (PCA) to the field of data mining in electroencephalogram (EEG) processing.... Sample PDF
EEG Data Mining Using PCA
Chapter 9
Darryl N. Davis, Thuy T.T. Nguyen
Risk prediction models are of great interest to clinicians. They offer an explicit and repeatable means to aide the selection, from a general... Sample PDF
Generating and Verifying Risk Prediction Models using Data Mining
Chapter 10
Vangelis Karkaletsis, Konstantinos Stamatakis, Karampiperis, Karampiperis, Pythagoras Karampiperis, Pythagoras Karampiperis
The World Wide Web is an important channel of information exchange in many domains, including the medical one. The ever increasing amount of freely... Sample PDF
Management of Medical Website Quality Labels via Web Mining
Chapter 11
Rainer Schmidt
In medicine, a lot of exceptions usually occur. In medical practice and in knowledge-based systems, it is necessary to consider them and to deal... Sample PDF
Two Case-Based Systems for Explaining Exceptions in Medicine
Chapter 12
Bruno Crémilleux, Arnaud Soulet, Jiri Kléma, Céline Hébert, Olivier Gandrillon
The discovery of biologically interpretable knowledge from gene expression data is a crucial issue. Current gene data analysis is often based on... Sample PDF
Discovering Knowledge from Local Patterns in SAGE Data
Chapter 13
Jirí Kléma, Filip Železný, Igor Trajkovski, Filip Karel, Bruno Crémilleux
This chapter points out the role of genomic background knowledge in gene expression data mining. The authors demonstrate its application in several... Sample PDF
Gene Expression Mining Guided by Background Knowledge
Chapter 14
Pamela L. Thompson, Xin Zhang, Wenxin Jiang, Zbigniew W. Ras, Pawel Jastreboff
This chapter describes the process used to mine a database containing data, related to patient visits during Tinnitus Retraining Therapy. The... Sample PDF
Mining Tinnitus Database for Knowledge
Chapter 15
Dinora A. Morales, Endika Bengoetxea, Pedro Larrañaga
Infertility is currently considered an important social problem that has been subject to special interest by medical doctors and biologists. Due to... Sample PDF
Gaussian-Stacking Multiclassifiers for Human Embryo Selection
Chapter 16
Mining Tuberculosis Data  (pages 332-349)
Marisa A. Sánchez, Sonia Uremovich, Pablo Acrogliano
This chapter reviews the current policies of tuberculosis control programs for the diagnosis of tuberculosis. The international standard for... Sample PDF
Mining Tuberculosis Data
Chapter 17
Mila Kwiatkowska, M. Stella Atkins, Les Matthews, Najib T. Ayas, C. Frank Ryan
This chapter describes how to integrate medical knowledge with purely inductive (data-driven) methods for the creation of clinical prediction rules.... Sample PDF
Knowledge-Based Induction of Clinical Prediction Rules
Chapter 18
Petr Berka, Jan Rauch, Marie Tomecková
The aim of this chapter is to describe goals, current results, and further plans of long-time activity concerning application of data mining and... Sample PDF
Data Mining in Atherosclerosis Risk Factor Data
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