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What is Bayesian Autonomous Driver (BAD) model

Handbook of Research on Ambient Intelligence and Smart Environments: Trends and Perspectives
BAD models describe phenomena on the basis of the variables of interest and the decomposition of their joint probability distribution (JPD) into conditional probability distributions (CPD-factors) according to the special chain rule for Bayesian networks. The underlying conditional independence hypotheses (CIHs) between sets of variables can be tested by standard statistical methods (e.g. the conditional mutual information index. The parameters of BAD models can be learnt objectively with statistical sound methods by batch from multivariate behavior traces or by learning from single cases. Due to their probabilistic nature BAD models or BAS can not only be used for real-time control of vehicles but also for real-time detection of anomalies in driver behavior and real-time generation of supportive interventions (countermeasures).
Published in Chapter:
Prototyping Smart Assistance with Bayesian Autonomous Driver Models
Claus Moebus (University of Oldenburg, Germany) and Mark Eilers (University of Oldenburg, Germany)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61692-857-5.ch023
Abstract
The Human or Cognitive Centered Design (HCD) of intelligent transport systems requires digital Models of Human Behavior and Cognition (MHBC) enabling Ambient Intelligence e.g. in a smart car. Currently MBHC are developed and used as driver models in traffic scenario simulations, in proving safety assertions and in supporting risk-based design. Furthermore, it is tempting to prototype assistance systems (AS) on the basis of a human driver model cloning an expert driver. To that end we propose the Bayesian estimation of MHBCs from human behavior traces generated in new kind of learning experiments: Bayesian model learning under driver control. The models learnt are called Bayesian Autonomous Driver (BAD) models. For the purpose of smart assistance in simulated or real world scenarios the obtained BAD models can be used as Bayesian Assistance Systems (BAS). The critical question is, whether the driving competence of the BAD model is the same as the driving competence of the human driver when generating the training data for the BAD model. We believe that our approach is superior to the proposal to model the strategic and tactical skills of an AS with a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The usage of the BAD model or BAS as a prototype for a smart Partial Autonomous Driving Assistant System (PADAS) is demonstrated within a racing game simulation.
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