STAR-TRANS Modeling Language: Risk Modeling in the STAR-TRANS Risk Assessment Framework

Background

For performing risk assessment, the first and most important step is identifying, as comprehensively as possible, the set of risks involved. In the vast majority of cases the number of such risks is large enough, so that aggregation, filtering and ranking methodologies should be applied. Carr, Konda, Monarch, Walker and Ulrich in “Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification” (1993) followed a field test risk identification process consisting of a series of interviews with groups of selected personnel. Webler et al. (1995) outlined a risk ranking methodology through an extensive survey example dealing with a public utility infrastructure in New Jersey. Morgan et al. (2000) proposed a ranking methodology designed for use by federal risk management agencies, calling for interagency taskforces to define and categorize the risks to be ranked. Berdica (2002) proposed that vulnerability analysis of transport networks should be regarded as an overall framework through which different transport studies could be conducted to determine how well a transport system would perform when exposed to different kinds and intensities of disturbances. Haimes (1998) created a Hierarchical Holographic Model (HHM) for the transportation system and the facilities it supports. Haimes, et al. (2002) offered a methodological framework that identifies, prioritizes, assesses and manages risks to complex, large-scale systems. The risk filtering, ranking, and management (RFRM) methodology captures all six questions of risk assessment and management. Di Gangi (2005) recommended a quantitative method in order to figure out if the infrastructure of an area is strong enough for evacuation procedure.