Abstract
A residential energy consumption model was estimated by using socio-economic characteristics, economic activities, mobility, land cover, natural hazards, governance, energy, air quality, and green economy variables for the EU-27 and UK. Regional variations of the energy consumption were also investigated through focusing on European regional typologies including urban, intermediate, and rural regions. The residential energy consumption model was estimated by using spatial econometric approaches as well as specific regression models were estimated for the urban, intermediate, and rural regions. The key variables used in regression analysis were selected according to their importance using the Random Forest (RF) classification method. The results from the regressions confirm that socio-economic, environmental, governance, technology, and natural hazards related variables explain residential energy consumption in Europe. The variations of sign and coefficients of the variables according to different regional typologies were also uncovered.
Top1. Introduction
The majority of the world’s population resides in urban areas and it is anticipated that urban populations will grow in the coming decades (UN, 2018). Cities and urban regions can be thought of as major consumers of energy resources and significant contributors to greenhouse gases emissions due to inefficient structures in the built environment and transportation activities. Cities are responsible for up to 80% of the world’s energy consumption (UN, 2020) where in the EU in 2020, the residential sector accounts for about 27% of total energy consumption while it is 26.1% and 28.4% for the industrial and transport sectors, respectively (URL1). As urbanisation continues inducing a large share of energy consumption that in the long run indicates significant negative effects on well-being and sustainability, energy conservation and emissions reduction in residential buildings is playing an increasingly important role in creating sustainable cities and urban regions.
Similar to most of the countries, petroleum products and natural gas account for a large share of total energy supply (58.2%) (URL2) and are the type of fuels most commonly used in the EU member countries. Although carbon-intensive infrastructures are predominant in many European countries, a structural shift is underway towards a shift to renewables be used in different sectors in the economy (EEA, 2017). This is related to the 2005 framework of the United Nations Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, which came into force in 1997, and aims to reduce CO2 emissions not only in developing countries but also in developed countries such as the EU. The EU is committed to reducing overall average emissions by 8% between 2008 and 2012 compared to 1990 levels (EC, 1999). This is because the EU’s energy market reforms and market liberalisation will give consumers choice of supply and enable citizens to actively participate in the market leading to more efficient use of energy resources (Roggenkamp and Diestelmeier, 2020). The EEA (2022) reported that greenhouse gas emissions in the EU decreased by 32% between 1990 and 2020 indicating a considerable overachievement of the EU’s 2020 reduction target of 20%. Due to Covid19 crises effecting the EU economy resulted a decrease in energy consumption in 2020 where the primary energy consumption dropped to 1236 Mtoe which is 5.8% below the EU2020 target level (EC, 2022). In 2018, the amended Energy Efficiency Directive (EU2018/2002) came into force introducing a headline EU Energy Efficiency Target for 2030 of at least 32.5% including a clause for a possible upwards revision by 2023 (EC, 2022). Improving the energy efficiency as well as promoting energy production from renewable energy resources can be essential to achieve a necessary progress. Through adopting energy efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy technologies, households can make a huge contribution in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the determinants of household energy consumption have come to the forefront as this can contribute to our understanding of the factors influencing residential energy consumption and their impacts on the environment and socio-economic well-being.