Attrition Models and Applications

Attrition Models and Applications

Ilknur Karacan, Ismet Karacan, Serol Bulkan
Copyright: © 2019 |Pages: 24
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-5513-1.ch007
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Abstract

Frederick W. Lanchester proposed simple ordinary differential equations that plainly model the attrition of fighting forces in a battlefield. With this insight, researchers studied extensions of these equations to model various battles for years. Novel studies include the application of these equations to miscellaneous field apart from battles that comprise reciprocal contention of opponents. If well-defined, these models can assist decision makers in revealing the shortcomings of a war strategy and discovering the bottlenecks that should be optimized. The recent studies prove that the insights gained from these models can also be utilized in other fields such as economy, biology, engineering, etc. This chapter includes the classic Lanchester equations, significant extensions of classical models, and a number of important application examples.
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Background

A war (or a combat) may be modeled for various purposes. Regardless of its purpose, a combat model is expected to produce the required output to decision-makers to assist them in analyzing the performance of both sides of the war. Tactical warfare models can be grouped under three category as follows (Bonder, 1981):

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    War Games

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    Simulations

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    Analytical Models

Each category possesses its own pros and cons in dimensions of realism, simplicity, accessibility etc. War games are common frameworks for a broad class of applications that encapsulate the games that progress upon the decisions of the opposing decision-makers. The decision-makers conclude their decisions according to the information that is derived from the domain of the game. War games are played for centuries even only for relaxation (Shephard,1963). Chess is a valuable worldwide example. However, war gaming services especially to military tacticians for boosting their capability to achieve crucial decisions, analyze their tactics, practice the war environment etc. Kriegsspiel is a tangible domain for war games that is developed and heavily practiced in 18th and 19th centuries. With the aid of computers, complex war games may be played through smart systems. Simulations are realistic runs of human reasoning and behavior by actions of automated and/or semi-automated forces (Ilachinski, 2004). They provide a collective output of reactions provided by consistently partitioned event or agents.

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