Mathematical Simulation of Anthropogenic Load on Forested Territories for Point Source

Mathematical Simulation of Anthropogenic Load on Forested Territories for Point Source

Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy
Copyright: © 2022 |Pages: 25
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-5678-1.ch016
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Abstract

An anthropogenic load is the main cause of forest fires in the vicinity of settlements and various objects of transport or industrial infrastructure. It is proposed to mark out linear and point sources of anthropogenic load. For the numerical simulation, the similarity in the processes of propagation of anthropogenic load and diffusive heat transfer was used. The quantitative characteristic of the anthropogenic load is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires in the controlled forest area. A mathematical model to predict the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source is presented. Distributions of the virtual number of forest fires for model data from a point source of anthropogenic load are obtained. Conclusions about the patterns of the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source are formulated. The prospects for the further development of these results are described.
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Background

Forest fires destroy the forest stands and pollute the atmosphere with the products of pyrolysis and combustion of forest fuels (Baranovskiy & Kuznetsov, 2017a). An important part of strategic measures to prevent the negative impact of forest fires on plant communities and settlements is the forecast of their occurrence.

In Canada, the forest fire risk prediction is carried out as part of the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) multicomponent system (Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; Wotton, 2009; Gould et al., 2013). The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) (van Wagner, 1987; Martell, 2000) is used to predict the risk of the forest fires. It produces a qualitative and quantitative prediction of the fire potential index, which is used in a wide range of management activities. The input data includes weather conditions, characteristics of forest fuel, topographic parameters that are necessary to predict forest fire maturation, the occurrence of a forest fire and a prediction of the behavior of a forest fire. CFFDRS includes the following subsystems (van Wagner, 1987):

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