Abstract
The unpredicted escalation of regional security crises and conflicts challenges the stability in the contemporary international system. The conflict prevention phase is key to international conflicts. This research accepts that regional security crises and conflicts are a result of power competition. A theoretical gap is the unclear meaning of power, as well as how power is perceived by different IR actors. A reliable analysis on power perception is needed to define its meaning. This chapter decomposes the concept of power to measurable categories. The methodology is qualitative, with conceptual analysis of power in international relations. The derived new concept is based on power definitions in IR theory: hard, soft, smart, and sharp. The new classification of six power elements comprises military/security, economy/investment, energy/climate, diplomacy/politics, governance/society, and information access/exchange. Through it, the perceived power of regional competitors can be assessed. Particularly, it can foster the EU role as a conflict prevention actor.
TopIntroduction
The relation between power perception and conflict is unexplored area in international relations. Some IR theories outline the dependence between power possession and the reaction of regional actors, triggering conflict in vulnerable neighbouring countries. According to the balance of power theory, perfect competition between global actors leads to stability, while imperfect competition leads to crises and conflicts (Kaplan, 1957 in Boulding, 1958:331; Haas, 1953). According to the security dilemma theory, misperception of possible actions or intentions of another actor leads to competition which results in crises or conflicts (Roe, 2005; Mitzen, 2006). These two theories cannot be exclusively applied worldwide, but they are valid in regional context with two or more competitors aiming to expand their influence. Such are the examples in the Black Sea region and the Western Balkans. In both regions, the EU’s interest is in competition for leadership with other regional players - Russia and Türkiye. A main gap in this competition is the unclarified meaning of power. This research addresses the meaning of power in international relations and its relation to conflict prevention. The cycle of the conflict (Lund, 2009) shows that preventing a conflict is more important than acting after a security crisis has erupted. The EU currently focuses on crisis management in its Global Strategy 2016, and Strategic Compass 2020, while conflict prevention needs elaboration. This research outlines the possible EU role as a conflict prevention actor in regional security crises, by suggesting the assessment of power perception over a common framework – the six elements of power.
This theoretical article addresses the question: What is power? To what measurable categories can power be deducted? The purpose of this research is to create a measurable classification of power in international relations. This classification is applicable to conflict prevention, assessing the perceived power by competing IR actors. As a result, their reaction of competition can be timely prevented. The results can serve regional conflict prevention in the context of the Black Sea, and in other conflict-intense regions.
There are three main problems with the concept of power in international relations. First, it is unclear what exactly power comprises. Second, it is unknown how power is perceived by different actors. Third, it is not known how their perception of power affects conflict prevention. The purpose of this particular article is to develop a classification of power elements, in a context of power competition in international relations.
The methodology is qualitative, through the method of conceptual analysis of power in international relations. Baldwin (2016) suggested decomposing power to measurable categories. I decompose and regroup power in IR to measurable categories, which I call power elements. I examine the concept of power as areas over which regional actors compete to project external influence. The result is a new conceptualisation: the six elements of power. These are: military security, economy/investment, energy/climate, diplomacy/politics, governance/society, information access/exchange. The new classification of six power elements impacts the knowledge of conflict prevention.
The novelty of this research is that, with the six power elements, the perception of regional competitors can be assessed. The perception of power competition for each regional actor can be measured for a selected time period. This measurement shows the likelihood for each regional actors to initiate a security crisis or a conflict in a fixed time period. This knowledge can foster the role of a conflict prevention actor in international relations. The EU could apply this power perception measurement to conflict-intense regions, thus strengthening its role as a conflict-prevention actor. The author suggests an application of the model in two neighbouring the EU regions – the Western Balkans and the Black Sea region.
Key Terms in this Chapter
Six Elements of Power / Six Power Elements: A new concept, created in this research. It combines and re-organises the previous definitions of power in International Relations.
Hard Power: The material possessing and material resources, through which an IR actor influences the choices and behaviour of other IR actors. For example: military equipment and army, energy security, economic benefits and sanctions.
Power Competition: The competition of IR actors to externally project influence over other IR actors.
Regional conflict: world conflicts after the Cold War, when the bipolar system collapsed and a multi-polar system was formed. At that time, regional conflicts prevailed over the previously known conflicts between two blocs, East and West.
Regional Competitors/ Powers/ Hegemons: These are the most powerful IR actors in a region, who compete to impose their influence over other (less powerful) regional actors.
Power Perception: The perceived meaning of power in IR, which for different IR actors at different time might have different result.
Conflict Prevention: The phase before a conflict escalates into a security crisis, including before a war.
Sharp Power: The ability of an IR actor to influence other IR actors through the possession, access, and exchange of information.
Power: The influence of an IR actor over the behaviour and choices of other IR actors.
Soft Power: The ability of an IR actor to influence other IR actors, based on non-material resources. For example: ideology, beliefs, language, history, social structures, governance models, political dialogue or diplomatic networks.
Smart Power: A combination of both hard power and soft power.