System Dynamics Modelling for Analyzing CO2 Emissions: A Case Study in Turkey

System Dynamics Modelling for Analyzing CO2 Emissions: A Case Study in Turkey

Arzu Eren Şenaras (Uludag University, Turkey), Şahin İnanç (Uludag University, Turkey) and Hayrettin Kemal Sezen (Uludag University, Turkey)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-7289-3.ch011

Abstract

System dynamics is an interdisciplinary problem-solving methodology that utilizes several significant thinking skills such as dynamic thinking and cause-and-effect thinking. System dynamics is a disciplined collaborative approach that could accelerate learning by combining a multifaceted perspective that provides insight into complex and interactive issues. This chapter aims to develop a system dynamic model. The amount of CO2 oscillations were investigated from the production of electrical energy depending on the rate of population growth up 2030. Model results, which are developed using Vensim package program, have been observed related to the variables of the adaptations.
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Literature Review

Some of the studies in the literature made by system dynamics approach are as follows.

A systematic dynamical study in China focuses on whether the future electricity demand is not high enough and whether it is right to conduct long-term power plants (Qian, 2008).

In a system dynamics study for South Africa, it is worth considering whether the increase in energy supply is due to enlargement of nuclear power generation, or whether it should be closed down with stringent measures to be taken in the use of energy. As a result of the work done, it turns out that the strict measures to be taken in energy use are more appropriate (Musango, Brent and Bassi, 2009).

In a system dynamics study in Germany, the factors affecting electricity prices and measures to reduce CO2 emissions are covered (Jäger, Schmidt and Karl, 2008).

A system dynamics study was conducted on how to reduce the impact of intercity passenger transport in China on CO2 emissions. This study will be higher than expected CO2 emissions in 2020 it will be emphasized and the development of rail transport is the best solution accordingly, (Han and Yoshitsugu, 2008).

United Arab another system dynamics work in the Emirates will also reduce CO2 emissions outside to meet the required energy for future electricity and clean water requirement seeks to identify the most appropriate technology (Choucr of Goldsmith and Mezher 2008).

A systematic dynamics study in Italy is about renewable energy sources. After the banning of nuclear energy in Italy in 1987 and the restriction of CO2 emissions by the Kyoto Protocol, there has been no shift towards renewable energy sources. In this study, the extent to which a renewable energy resources 2030 and fossil fuels to the costs arising from its use (together with additional costs for the excess CO2) extent advantageous or be disadvantaged by modeled (Giorgio, et.al, 2008).

Key Terms in this Chapter

System Dynamic Language: This language consists of four components: stocks, flows, decision functions, and information flow.

Delays: A characteristic of dynamic systems and affect both material and information flow.

Stocks: The present values of the variables that are formed by the accumulated difference between the inflow and outflow.

Decision Functions: States of the policy that determines how to convert available information in stock into a decision.

Information Flow: Creation, control, and distribution of information is the most significant task of business management. It might be difficult to model the information properly in the business process.

Information Delay: They are usually caused by the transfer of information and the delay in the process of taking an action after the information is received. Information delays could occur in vertical hierarchical administrations.

Flow: It is defined as the increase or decrease in the unit time interval in stocks and denoted by f ( t ).

Material Delays: In this structure, the material moves forward from the beginning to the end of the pipeline without any change during a period of time, similar to a water running through a pipeline.

System Dynamics: The basis of system dynamics is to understand how system structures cause system behavior and system events.

Material Flow: It includes stocks and flow rates of physical goods such as raw materials, inventories in the process, or finished goods.

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