The Modeling of the Capacity of the Moroccan Healthcare System in the Context of COVID-19: The Relevance of the Logistic Approach

Abstract

The outbreak of SARS-Cov2 in China and its subsequent spread has caused a global pandemic. The authors conducted a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model of the spread of COVID-19 in Moroccan population. The model is based on combining the average contact rate (µmax) extracted from the early exponential phase of the outbreak with a logistic simulation over time. Interestingly, this modeling approach showed a perfect fit with a strong correlation between real confirmed and estimated cases when calibrated on the Chinese declining outbreak. Subsequently, the model was applied for studying the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Morocco to determine the needed time for reaching 10,000 confirmed cases whose 15% (1,500) are at risk of developing health complications requiring patient care in hospitals. The latter total capacity does not exceed 1,640 beds according to the authorities. Incorporating these parameters in the logistic model, they predicted that the Moroccan healthcare system will be at 27%, 50%, 76%, and 90% of saturation on April 11, 16, 23, and May 4, 2020, respectively.